Bond And Money Market

We present a matrix detailing some movement in some key market rates (domestic and global) and key events:

Parameters 30-June-20 31-May-20 28-June-19
RBI Repo Rate % 4.00 4.00 5.75
5Y AAA % 6.14 6.14 7.67
5Y AAA-5Y Gsec Spread bps# 129 128 79
10Y Gsec % 5.88 5.78 6.88
CPI (%) NA 5.84 3.05
IIP (FYTD) % NA -0.7 3.4
US 10Y % 0.68 0.65 2.01
Japan 10Y % 0.05 0.00 -0.16
EUR 10Y % -0.44 -0.45 -0.33

Source: Government agencies have not compiled inflation and industrial production data for May and April respectively, due to Covid19 lockdown.
Data Source: Bloomberg; Data as on June 30th, 2020 #Gilt annualised

Debt Markets

The unlocking of the economy saw a gradual uptick in some high frequency economic data points. Electricity generation, e-way bill data, vehicle registration and some payment settlement data point to a gradual uptick. While the data sets do look encouraging, what would be more important is a sustained improvement in these data sets. While we may have seen a growth in the people affected by the virus (amid larger testing), the patient recovery rate has as shown a large improvement.

Amidst all the silver linings, a shadow was cast by the rating agencies on the sovereign ratings. While Moody’s downgraded India’s sovereign rating to the lowest investment grade, Fitch revised the outlook to negative from stable. The market took the ratings in their stride and were broadly indifferent to the changes.

The debt market was fairly stable with a benign bias. The benchmark 10-year gilt moved up by around 10 basis points to close at 5.89 percent. However, the AAA credits saw a sharper rally of around 20 bps and the five-year AAA credits closed at around 6.15 percent. Liquidity continued to be in a surplus mode and short-term money market rates fell about 10-20 bps. The RBI also announced another round of operation twist or LTRO (selling shorter dated Treasury Bills and buying longer dated GoI securities) in an attempt to normalize the steep yield curve.

Scheme Strategy - Debt schemes
  • Mahindra Manulife Low Duration Fund
  • Mahindra Manulife Ultra Short Term Fund
    • The average maturity of the portfolio moved up to around 221days
    • The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is at the higher end of the permissible range
    • The YTM of the portfolio is around 4.70%
    • With surplus liquidity conditions, we expect the money market rates to remain benign
  • Mahindra Manulife Liquid Fund
    • We continue to maintain a healthy mix of certificate of deposits and commercial papers
    • We will attempt to ensure adequate liquidity, safety and accrual
  • Mahindra Manulife Credit Risk Fund
    • The portfolio continued to pare certain credits and has a substantial cash & cash equivalent holding. We intend to hold the same for some time in the future and redeploy as uncertainties recede and investor confidence returns in debt markets. Credit spreads continue to remain elevated for lower credit rated papers. The YTM of the portfolio has decreased to around 7.48% because of substantial cash holdings
    • The average maturity of the portfolio was around two years with modified duration of around 1.70
    • We will continue to take tactical approaches to duration in the future
Looking ahead
  • We may see further cuts going ahead as the RBI Governor hinted at the possibility
  • Gilts may continue to rally in the short-term. However, gilt may see resistance given the scale of borrowing and uncertainty of potential future borrowings over a longer term. Moreover, an incremental credit growth as the economy opens up, could also put pressure on gilts
  • We would be careful on supply-side constraints inducing commodity inflation
  • Public sector credits (implicit sovereign backup) would continue to be a preferred choice amidst the risk-aversion. Our bias remains AAA credits than GoI Securities
  • While AAA credits have rallied meaningfully in the last quarter, we believe a large part of the rally was the LTRO-induced. As banks gradually move away from the LTRO buying, it would be interesting to watch the trajectory of AAA credits
  • Liquidity being in sustained surplus mode, all short-term categories would be an investor’s choice
  • While RBI and the Government’s measures seem to have a positive effect on the borrowings of NBFCs, Non PSU financial services credits would require a careful look and the bias towards strong parentage would continue
Equity Markets

We present charts tracking domestic index and sector, and global indices movements:

India Index
S&P BSE SENSEX Index Nifty 50 BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Nifty Midcap 100 Nifty Smallcap 100
1 Month 7.7% 7.5% 10.2% 13.7% 10.8% 15.3%
1 Year -11.4% -12.6% -11.8% -13.1% -16.7% -25.6%
World Index
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG S&P 500 Index NASDAQ Composite Index
1 Month 1.7% 1.8% 6.0%
1 Year -3.0% 5.4% 25.6%

Source: Bloomberg, Data as on June 30, 2020 | Performance - Absolute returns

Equity Market update

The global equity markets continued its buoyancy, led by USA. Indian markets too participated in this rally, with Nifty gaining 7.5%, Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Small cap 100 indices gaining 10.8% and 15.3%, respectively. Among large sectors in market, financials, energy and auto outperformed Nifty while FMCG, IT, pharma and commodities underperformed Nifty.

Globally, the sentiments for equity as an asset class continues to swing between positive sentiments (hope of medical solution to virus, expectations of further policy stimulus, economic recovery on opening up) and weak fundamentals (expectations of negative data points on economic growth and corporate earnings over next 6-9 months). We expect both these positive and negative sentiments to influence the market sentiments over next 3-6 months. The market moves would be more like swinging between the two as both positives and negatives are likely to dominate each other alternately; like what we saw in past six months. Just to reinforce the volatile swings in global markets, S&P 500 Index in USA had a 20% fall in Q1CY20, followed by 20% rise in Q2CY20.

As the lockdown period kept on getting extended, the expectation over time to go “back to normalisation” is getting elongated. This is reflected in continuous downgrades of growth estimates across global agencies. In June, IMF released its outlook on economy, projecting CY20 global GDP de-growth at 4.9% (1.9% lower than estimated in April 20). IMF also estimated a sharp recovery in CY21, with global GDP growth at 5.4%. For Indian economy, IMF expects de-growth of 4.5% in FY21 and growth recovery at 6% in FY22.

Indian economy is opening up but at a slower pace than expected earlier. The reason being quite a few states are opting to continue with lockdown as virus spread is still rising. June saw a reasonable increase in economic activity vis-a-vis previous month. Quite a few companies have commented that activity levels in June have been better than what was earlier expected by them. We track some high frequency data (electricity generation, petrol and diesel sales, automobile sales, credit growth, GST collection, etc.) on both YoY and MoM basis. The interpretation of data differs across sectors and while MoM growth is encouraging, we would like to monitor the time when the sectors are likely to report numbers that will be flat or show growth on YoY basis. We now expect that in H2FY21, many industries would start getting back to normalcy wherein they report a YoY flat or slight growth in volumes.

Markets were impacted in middle of the month by reports about confrontation at Ladakh border between India and China. While the initial news and reaction has been absorbed in markets, any news flow around escalation in the conflict can create negative sentiments. Similarly, any trade action taken (tariff or non-tariff) has potential to impact some sectors and companies where inter-dependency with China exists.

The macro-economic data declared during the month shows fiscal deficit in April and May (inFY21) at 58.6% of that budgeted for FY21 (v/s 52% in same period for FY20), current account surplus at 0.1% of GDP for Q4FY20 (0.9% deficit in FY20). The output of eight core sectors was down by 23.4% (Y-O-Y) in May 2020. The south west monsoons have covered India ahead of estimates and this brightens the prospects for agricultural crops and rural economy.

Scheme Specific Strategies For Equity Schemes
  • Mahindra Manulife Multi Cap Badhat Yojana
  • Mahindra Manulife Mid Cap Unnati Yojana

    This scheme among other things would aim to invest in companies that have a strong product line and leadership position in that sector and can take advantage of the India’s growth story. The portfolio will focus on mid-cap stocks apart from some exposure to small and large-cap stocks. The portfolio will have a mix of top-down and bottom-up approach to investing, depending on market conditions.

  • Mahindra Manulife ELSS Kar Bachat Yojana

    The portfolio will have allocation to stocks across market capitalization and may focus on companies that have the power to take advantage of the opportunities the economy offers. The stocks in the portfolio are likely to have a superior product line, manageable debt and leadership in their respective sectors.

  • Mahindra Manulife Rural Bharat and Consumption Yojana

    The portfolio is a focused portfolio with around 30 stocks. The aim of the portfolio is to have a rural bias and look for opportunities in rural consumption, rural infrastructure and rural lending.

  • Mahindra Manulife Large Cap Pragati Yojana:

    The portfolio is a focused portfolio with around 25 -30 stocks. A top-down approach would be adopted to identify sectors with potential across different periods based on emerging macro trends. In addition, a bottom-up stock selection would also be followed, to identify companies with good governance and strong leadership

  • Mahindra Manulife Top 250 Nivesh Yojana:

    The scheme focusses on investing in companies that have demonstrated strong leadership and sustained growth. The portfolio has a focus on large caps and midcaps which are currently at around 48% and 42% of net equity holdings respectively.

Scheme Specific Strategies For Hybrid Schemes
  • Mahindra Manulife Hybrid Equity Nivesh Yojana
  • Mahindra Manulife Equity Savings Dhan Sanchay Yojana

    Equity:

    • The approach of the portfolio would be to minimize the volatility and provide steady returns
    • The portfolio may have a large-cap bias that focusses on growth stocks having reasonable valuations and value-stocks having a near to medium-term trigger

    Debt:

    • The Modified duration of the portfolio is around to 4.00
    • We will continue with the current split between credits and sovereigns
Looking ahead

Earnings season for Indian corporates for Q1FY21 will start now and this shall reflect the wider implications of lockdown on the corporates across the sectors. The quarter is expected to bear full impact of lockdown as companies across will have a 30-60 days impact on business due to lockdown. While numbers are expected to be weak/bad, the bigger focus would be on the management commentary accompanying the results to throw a better light on the business issues facing them in the unlocking process.

We continue to believe that amidst many of the concerns going around for FY21, there are some real medium to long-term positives for India. Lower oil prices, global corporates looking for an alternate supply base away from China and the structural reforms ushered in by government are something that we should not ignore as an investor. We also see a continuous commitment by global strategic investors though FDI route to participate in India growth story. Actual FDI of $43 billion in FY20 and announcements made in Q1FY21 (despite the lockdown) provide a comfort in India’s growth story from investors having the long-term vision and willingness to commit.

Considering the time gap between potential of structural upside and near-term concerns for FY21, we believe that market volatility is likely to remain and this period may be utilized for increasing the asset allocations to equities through SIPs. The lumpsum route may be utilised as a top up on the SIPs during the fearful times amid the volatility.

Webcast
Equity Market Outlook
Debt Market Outlook
Scheme Name Product Suitability Riskometer
Mahindra Manulife Liquid Fund
An Open Ended Liquid scheme
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Regular income over short term
  • Investment in money market and debt instruments
Mahindra Manulife Low Duration Fund
An open ended debt scheme - An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the Portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months (Please refer page 31 of SID)
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Regular income over short term
  • Investment in money market and debt instruments
Mahindra Manulife Ultra Short Term Fund
An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 to 6 months (please refer to page no. 31 of SID)
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Regular Income over short term.
  • Investment in a portfolio of short term debt and money market instruments.
Mahindra Manulife Credit Risk Fund
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds (excluding AA+ rated corporate bonds)
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • To generate regular returns and capital appreciation over medium term.
  • Investment predominantly in AA and below rated corporate bonds, debt, government securities and money market instruments while maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity.
Mahindra Manulife ELSS Kar Bachat Yojana
An open ended equity linked saving scheme with a statutory lock in of 3 years and tax benefit
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Long term capital appreciation
  • Investment predominantly in equity and equity related securities
Mahindra Manulife Top 250 Nivesh Yojana
Large & Mid Cap Fund - An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid cap stocks
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Long term wealth creation and income
  • Investment predominantly in equity and equity related securities of large and Mid cap companies.
Mahindra Manulife Equity Savings Dhan Sanchay Yojana
An open ended scheme investing in equity, arbitrage and debt
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Long term capital appreciation and generation of income
  • Investment in equity and equity related instruments, arbitrage opportunities and debt and money market instruments
Mahindra Manulife Multi Cap Badhat Yojana
Multi Cap Fund- An open ended equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap, small cap stocks
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Medium to Long term capital appreciation;
  • Investment predominantly in equity and equity related securities including derivatives.
Mahindra Manulife Mid Cap Unnati Yojana
Mid Cap Fund – An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in mid cap stocks
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Long term capital appreciation;
  • Investment predominantly in equity and equity related securities including derivatives of mid cap companies
Mahindra Manulife Large Cap Pragati Yojana
Large Cap Fund - An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Long term capital appreciation;
  • Investment predominantly in equity and equity related securities including derivatives of large cap companies.
Mahindra Manulife  Hybrid Equity Nivesh Yojana
An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity and equity related instruments
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Long term capital appreciation and generation of income;
  • Investment in equity and equity related instruments and debt and money market instruments
Mahindra Manulife Rural Bharat and Consumption Yojana
An open ended scheme following Rural India theme
This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
  • Long term capital appreciation;
  • Investment predominantly in equity and equity related securities including derivatives of entities engaged in and/ or expected to benefit from the growth in rural India.

* Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them

The views expressed here in this material are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. This material has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While utmost care has been exercised while preparing this material, Mahindra Manulife Investment Management Private Limited (formerly known as Mahindra Asset Management Company Private Limited) (AMC) does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. The data/statistics given in this material are to explain general market trends in the securities market, it should not be construed as any research report/research recommendation. Readers of this material should rely on information / data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments. Neither Mahindra Manulife Mutual Fund, the AMC nor Mahindra Manulife Trustee Private Limited (formerly known as Mahindra Trustee Company Private Limited), its directors or associates shall be liable for any damages that may arise from the use of the information contained herein.

Cno. 00765

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.